Wednesday, July 1, 2009

TdF time

Kevin sent out a little invite to a TdF preditions pool, tossing in some bike parts or other schwag for the winner. I was intrigued. Here's my preditions for July:

GC Podium - 1st + Overall Lead, 2nd, 3rd: Armstrong @ 30", Sastre, Andy Schleck
Team Classification - Columbia-HTC
Most stage wins - Columbia-HTC (thank you Mr. Cavendish)
Stage 7 Winner - Contador
Stage 18 Winner - Cancellara
Stage 20 Winner - Sastre

nothing amazing in this prediction. it's kind of staid. but, i do think either armstrong or contador will win and the other will be off the podium having blown up trying to. i give even odds on one of them not finishing. most of the astana guys are smart enough to know that lance is likely to be paying their checks next year, and so i tip towards armstrong to win the astana inner war.

in other predictions:

i give team garmin the most lower run podium spots of the tour, and one stage win to tyler farrar.

i also give cavendish green in paris, andy schleck polka dots, fugulsang the white jersey,

and the most doping positives to team katusha (we will have to wait a few months to validate this one though due to testing delays).

at least one riders from each of the following teams will ring the doping bell: katusha, silence lotto (not counting mr dekker already), fuji-servetto, milram.

scoring zero stage wins are cofidis, bbox, ag2r, and anyone of french nationality (though one will podium on bastille day, aka "drug testing forgiveness day" for the french teams). the break will go to the line with mostly frenchmen and they will all get murdered in the sprint by a belgian. all paris will cry.

half the dopers will be italians.

phil liggett will use his phrase "suitcase of courage" at least once. the rider he speaks of will thereby be doomed and lose the stage.

armstrong won't win a stage. he doesn't need to.

cancellara wins stage 1, wears yellow until the TTT when he loses it to either highroad or garmin, i put money on highroad.

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