34.2km

Now, the course map and profile (and signup) said 30k. The start times list said 35k. It was neither. It was 12k up and down Skyliner, and 10k around the golf course.

The legs were good. I went up Skyliner probably faster than I ever have, and downhill as well. I caught the 30s guy and the 1min guy, and the first 24k went by quickly. Then the course swung right and onto the loop by the golf course. We had driven part of it yesterday but not all of it was open - and it was the unseen part that took me by surprise. Twisty, fast, some climbs, barren, some bumps, sweeping turns I couldn't see the exits of, and super hot weather. I hit the rises for what I was worth but felt pretty far from the limit of what my bike could do through the turns and downhills. I have a feeling that's were I lost the most time - a failure to fully preview the course and mark the crucial points in my mind's eye. Still, it was probably the fastest I could go on the day. Next year, it will be faster.

Peoria for the State TT is on Sunday - 11am sharp start time. Tomorrow, a VO2 test at the UO lab and some serious recovery. Time to see where the edges currently lie!

total prediction fail

Contadoped and Armstrong on the same podium, and the detonation of everyone but the Luxemburgers in the last week. Damn. I'm out some retro cycling parts I put in the pool.

Four days until Nationals. I hope there's a massive downhill headwind.

Friday afternoon, after a 3hr mellow ride on the TT bike making adjustments and trying out the position, I hopped on a plane headed for Cali and a cousin's wedding in South Lake Tahoe. If you've never been, it's a lot like Sunriver, but at 6,000ft, on a big lake, and actually in California wheras Sunriver is just full of Californians. So in that regard, it's actually worse. But when that's where the family is, that's where you go, and weddings aren't about the guests anyways so I'm happy to make the trip.

My flight got back at a reasonable hour yesterday so I got out for a late spin to make the most of increasing shade in the 101F weather. And what a crappy feeling comes from two days off the bike, excessive food consumption and four plan flights. Jay-sus. I'm torn between making sure the legs are rested for Friday, and opening them up. How do you rest after two full days of inactivity without overdoing it? Blow them out good and hard then softpedal for two days? I'll find out.

New Gears

I just registered for the Nationals TT, which is the Skyliners course from Cascade and HDO with a bonus section at the bottom. Since I spun out the 55x11 at the High Desert Omnium this year, and I'll be rocking a new (marginally more aero) TT bike, I'm now shopping for a 56. 56/44 just sound badass. But at 45mph downhill I might actually be able to stay on the gear.

Mmmm... 56x11. Sounds good.

OK fine I give up

The French will win a few stages in the Tour afterall. Race prediction are quickly unwinding.

this is why i don't do triathlons

because i would look terrible tt'ing in a speedo, among the many, many other horrifying transgressions of all that is good and holy to participate in such an event (and forget the running part)

thanks for the photo, doug.

The weatherman was wrong.

Prediction analysis so far:

Close to the mark, but getting further off. Score a point for predicting Cancellara's TT win (not that the odds were long) and almost there on him losing the jersey in the TTT. But Lance? What a ride.

The little move in the cross winds that left Contador weeping on Sunday is a perfect example of why I tip to Armstrong this tour: he does not make mistakes. Contador does. Think of Paris-Nice (although conspiracy theories abound on that one).

And of course, Voekler just killed my prediction that neither his team nor a Frenchman would win a stage. Bummer. I mean, awesome. Have to love that ride - even if I'm drifting further off the mark.

OK, new prediction: no more stage wins for bbox. And no win on the 14th either, for the French, because despite that being the day earmarked for no radios (hence higher chance of a break succeeding - they really want to win that day don't they?), it will fail. Maybe Devolder takes it from a break, to uphold the Belgian forecast?

TdF time

Kevin sent out a little invite to a TdF preditions pool, tossing in some bike parts or other schwag for the winner. I was intrigued. Here's my preditions for July:

GC Podium - 1st + Overall Lead, 2nd, 3rd: Armstrong @ 30", Sastre, Andy Schleck
Team Classification - Columbia-HTC
Most stage wins - Columbia-HTC (thank you Mr. Cavendish)
Stage 7 Winner - Contador
Stage 18 Winner - Cancellara
Stage 20 Winner - Sastre

nothing amazing in this prediction. it's kind of staid. but, i do think either armstrong or contador will win and the other will be off the podium having blown up trying to. i give even odds on one of them not finishing. most of the astana guys are smart enough to know that lance is likely to be paying their checks next year, and so i tip towards armstrong to win the astana inner war.

in other predictions:

i give team garmin the most lower run podium spots of the tour, and one stage win to tyler farrar.

i also give cavendish green in paris, andy schleck polka dots, fugulsang the white jersey,

and the most doping positives to team katusha (we will have to wait a few months to validate this one though due to testing delays).

at least one riders from each of the following teams will ring the doping bell: katusha, silence lotto (not counting mr dekker already), fuji-servetto, milram.

scoring zero stage wins are cofidis, bbox, ag2r, and anyone of french nationality (though one will podium on bastille day, aka "drug testing forgiveness day" for the french teams). the break will go to the line with mostly frenchmen and they will all get murdered in the sprint by a belgian. all paris will cry.

half the dopers will be italians.

phil liggett will use his phrase "suitcase of courage" at least once. the rider he speaks of will thereby be doomed and lose the stage.

armstrong won't win a stage. he doesn't need to.

cancellara wins stage 1, wears yellow until the TTT when he loses it to either highroad or garmin, i put money on highroad.